Thursday, November 20, 2008

High Probability Forex Trading Success With Fibonacci Numbers

By Richard U. Olson

The mathematician Fibonacci or Leonardo of Pisa in 1202 first published his Fibonacci sequence. In order to calculate the number of pairs of rabbits he would have at the end of a year based on their behavior of breeding, Fibonacci developed this famous sequence of numbers. Forex traders find this type of no-nonsense approach very profitable.

So you see, what many people mistakenly take as a mere mathematical abstraction, just "fooling around" with numbers, is rooted in very real-world applied mathematics. To state things very basically, the Fibonacci sequence can be used to detect and describe otherwise hidden patterns in the world around us.

It works really well while investing. Why? Well, based on the mass behavior of investors there are various hidden patterns in the stock market. Perceptive investors know this. Investment aphorisms such as "The best time to buy is when there's blood in the streets" and "Buy low and sell high" work well. However, they also relate to understanding the investment markets hidden patterns.

These patterns cannot be seen by a day to day observation of market conditions, but reveal themselves when you step back and take a look at the big picture. Short term fluctuations in the market are nearly impossible to accurately forecast. However, the trends which occur over time most certainly are predictable. Investors of all stripes, including Forex traders have used the Fibonacci sequence to plan their investments and make large profits in the currency exchange markets.

Using the Fibonacci sequence involves a series of numbers. Each following number is the sum of the two numbers before it. It progresses like this 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144, and into infinity. There are numeral interrelationships within these numerals. For example, take any number; it is roughly 1.618 times the number before it. Anciently the Greeks found number 1.618 reprehensive of the golden ratio which is the supreme essence of balance. This balance is the fundamental strategy of profitable investing

The most common applications of the Fibonacci sequence for investment purposes are retracements and arcs.

Fibonacci charts are created through a technique comprising three curved lines that are drawn for the purpose of anticipating key resistance and support levels as well as areas of ranging. First, an invisible trendline is drawn between two points (typically these are the high and low for a given time period). Then, three curves are drawn so as to intersect this trendline at the key Fibonacci levels of 38.2%, 50%, and 61.8%. Transaction decisions are made at the point where the price of the asset crosses through these key levels.

In the world of investment, retracement relates to the reversal in movements of the price of a stock. An impressive reversal can counter the prevailing trend in the stock. Successful progressive investors focus strongly on the retracement patterns and possibilities. The Fibonacci method of retracement evaluates the prospects of the price of a financial asset being more superior than is average as well as supporting or resisting at key Fibonacci levels before continuing on its original course. Between the two extreme points a trendline is drawn and then its vertical distance by the ratios of 23.6, 38.2, 50, 61.8, and 100 percent, according to Fibonacci.

The Fibonacci retracement is widely used by sophisticated traders to find: strategic places for transactions to be placed; target prices; and stop-losses. Other technical tools including Tirone levels, Gartley patterns, and Elliott Wave theory all make use of retracement.

The "Fibonacci formula" is used in investing for the simple reason that it works. Forex traders especially seem to find huge success from using it. - 13506

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